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Plane Answers: A pilot's seatbelt sign philosophy and aircraft accident odds
Welcome to Gadling's feature, Plane Answers, where our resident airline pilot, Kent Wien, answers your questions about everything from takeoff to touchdown and beyond. Have a question of your own? Ask away!Caroline asks:
Can someone tell me why the pilot sometimes turns on the seatbelt sign but it's seemingly for no reason? I recently flew Dubai to London and he (or she) kept putting it on however nothing happened. Especially annoying as I needed the bathroom at the time?
Hi Caroline,
There are a couple of possible explanations for a seatbelt sign that turns on and off frequently.
Occasionally we'll get reports from airplanes in front of us warning of turbulence ahead. It's best to get the seatbelt sign on if we get a report like this to prevent any injuries to passengers standing in the aisle.
Deciding when to turn the sign on after experiencing some un-forecasted and unreported bumps can be a challenge. Some pilots don't mind turning the sign on and off as the conditions permit and some will turn it on, only to forget about the sign when the ride improves, thus making every passenger feel like a criminal for using the lavatory for the rest of the trip.
There are some pilots who are concerned enough about the liability involved when turning the sign off that they'll insist on keeping it lit for the duration of the flight. This actually creates a riskier situation since passengers will disregard the sign, even during periods of turbulence, completely eliminating the point in having a sign in the first place.
There's another explanation that might surprise you. Pilots have been known to get calls from flight attendants asking for the sign to be turned on so they don't have to deal with people becoming stuck in an aisle between their carts or otherwise getting in the way of the service.
And occasionally there can be a rather large group of people congregating around the galleys chatting it up. One of the ways to disperse this crowd had been to use the seatbelt sign. This isn't exactly what the sign was intended for, of course.
Jen asks:
Hi Kent,
In light of the Air France crash, I am curious to know if it is indeed true that passengers pass out first, due to loss of cabin pressure, even before a plane hits the water (assuming it didn't explode in the air)?
What are the odds of this happening to me? Are the odds of this happening greater or less than winning the lottery?
P.S. This is my take: when I get on the plane, my odds are 50 / 50 : 50% chance that I live and 50% chance I don't. (haha, ok, joking...)
Hi Jen,
If the flight were to depressurize, and assuming the passengers couldn't get to their oxygen masks during the descent, then there is a limited amount of time until they will pass out. This time of useful consciousness varies depending on the altitude.At FL350 (35,000 feet) that time is only 30 to 60 seconds. However if the airplane is descending rapidly, the lower altitude will likely wake people up.
It's a morbid thought, for sure, but since you brought up statistics, let's look at the odds of dying in an airline accident a moment.
According to the Insurance Information Institute, the odds of losing your life in any given year is 1 in 502,544 and over an entire lifetime, it drops down to 1 in 6,460.
That's much better than the 1 in 84 odds over a lifetime that a person could be killed in an automobile accident. It seems to me the most effective way to save lives on a large scale would be to improve auto safety.
The odds of winning the lottery are reported at between 1 in 18 million for a state lottery to as low as 1 in 120 million in a multi-state contest. So, in fact the odds of an airplane accident are greater than the average person's odds of winning the lottery.
But the automobile odds show that driving is really the risky activity – 77 times riskier than flying, yet it's unusual to hear of anyone afraid of driving.
Do you have a question about something related to the pointy end of an airplane? Ask Kent and maybe he'll use it for the next Plane Answers. Check out his other blog, Cockpit Chronicles to travel along with him at work.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Barkin Jun 16th 2009 1:57PM
The odds of dying in a crash of a commercial airliner are most definitely even lower than the above data suggest.
The statistic calculates the chances of death in "air and space transport accidents" based on the average number of people who die in such accidents every year. The problem is that this statistic includes deaths in private planes and other small aircraft.
In fact, in the year 2005 (the year reflected in the stats in the above chart), 568 of the 590 aviation deaths occurred in planes with less than 10 seats. So if you're someone who only flies on commercial airlines with more than 10 seats, your chances of dying are considerably smaller.
Further examination shows that over the 10 year period of 1998-2007, the average number of deaths per year in large commercial airline accidents is 74.5. And that average includes 2001, a year that heavily skews the statistics because of the three major air "accidents" that all occurred on the same day. If you remove the month of September, 2001, the average is less than 24 deaths per year.
Considering the total scheduled domestic and international passengers on U.S. airlines and on flights to and from the United States on foreign airlines was 809 million in 2008 (according to the US Department of Transportation), the chances of dying on an airplane are very very low. (My simple arithmetic says about 1 in 33.7 million, or 1 in 10.8 million if you include 9/11 deaths in the statistics.)
So I'd say your chances of dying in a plane crash are right about on par with your chances of winning the lottery. Of course, it's a lot cheaper to play the lottery, so it's a lot easier to improve those odds.
Dave Jun 16th 2009 4:18PM
In short, you are more likely to die in your car on the way to the airport to catch your flight, as opposed to on the flight. :)
heather Jun 16th 2009 10:43PM
great site and will be using bits and pieces on my blogs (http://kiwitravelwriter.wordpress.com ) Attributing and linking back to you of course!
cheers, heather AKA the passionate nomad &/or kiwitravelwriter
Neil Jun 17th 2009 8:17AM
What's the difference between the Auto and the On in regards to the seatbelt switch?
jennifer Jun 17th 2009 9:41AM
hey kent! i am not sure if you remember me, jennifer, we spoke sometime last year about me having a fear of flying and going abroad to london?...well, i can officially say i've finally boarded my first plane in 15 years! it was a trip to vegas and did you know i wasn't even nervous at all the entire time, even the night before! i boarded the plane in austin like a pro, memphis like a pro and finally got to vegas! the only problem i had was the crosswinds in SLC coming back to austin....the plane felt like it dropped a whole half a mile down! crreeepy! but i have to say i loved it...i didnt freak out amazingly and even felt comfortable enough to look at the skymall magazines! i look forward to going to europe but man, i gotta find out how to keep myself busier for long flights! i cannot handle two or more hours up in the air without going all crazy and a.d.d...imagine 7 hours in a plane to london and back! yikes!:) thank you as always for yours and your fellow pilots professionalism.:)
35mm Jun 17th 2009 8:56AM
According to kent on flickr:
The Seatbelt and No Smoking signs are automatically turned on when the Oxygen mask are deployed. Seatbelt Auto turns on the seatbelt sign when the flaps are not up. No Smoke Auto goes on when gear down.
Jonathan Jun 17th 2009 12:26PM
Passengers ignore the seat belt sign to go to the bathroom all the time. On a recent flight with real turbulence and the sign on, passengers were even waiting in line for the mid-cabin bathroom on the 757 I was on. Since there are passengers sitting right next to the aisle there, I told the cabin attendant that bumps could make the standing people fall on us (I was seated about three feet from the bathroom door). She said there was nothing she could do about it. I pointed out that there are signs indicating bathroom occupancy (red or green lit) which can be seen throughout the cabin, and people should wait for the green, then get up and walk to the bathroom, instead of standing in line. If there is a conflict with people getting up at the same time, usually adult travelers should be able to handle it with a nod or wave. What this really points out is that many passengers are DUMB DUMB DUMB.
Alex Jun 18th 2009 10:05AM
Speaking of seatbelt sign forgetfulness (not to mention liability!), instead of forgetting to turn the seatbelt sign off, I was recently on a flight where the pilots forgot to turn it ON! And the flight was on a Colgan Air Q400, interestingly enough. We were in decent to EWR, below 10,000 ft. (on Colgan upon passing through 10,000, rather than flashing the seatbelt or no smoking sign the pilots actually say over the PA "through ten thousand"), and we still had not seen the seatbelt sign on since cruise. A flight attendent actually had to enter the cockpit and remind the pilots to turn the sign back on. I know pilots can understandably forget a minor thing or two, but I've never seen this happen before. It could've been a huge liability and an expensive mistake if it happened on the wrong flight at the wrong time, not to mention more bad press for Colgan!
dj Jun 18th 2009 6:49AM
Jennifer--------------it's called AMBIEN CR. Sleep your way across. It's the only way I can do it, and I do it often. Otherwise, I live in terror for 9 hours and feel every bump we encounter. Unfortunately, I have to fly across one more time to get back to the USA and I am dreading it after the Air France crash. I am still contemplating taking a ship!
nzm Jun 18th 2009 9:23AM
Kent:
If Caroline flew from London to Dubai on Emirates, the pilots on EK are notorious for turning on that seatbelt sign, and yes, they use it to get everyone back in their seats at service times.
We've had perfectly smooth flights on EK where the seatbelt sign has been on for practically the whole flight - not fun when it's a 14 hour non-stop between Dubai and Sydney, Australia.
Hope that you're having fun at the Airshow!
cheers
Michele
http://mandjadventures.blogspot.com
Alex Newberry Jun 30th 2009 8:47AM
I'm surprised how many airplanes still have the "No smoking" icons. Does this mean the planes are really old, or can people still smoke on planes in foreign countries?