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What the financial meltdown means for the future of globalization

There's been a lot of chatter recently over what the global financial crisis and impending recession means for the future of globalization. You see, critics have latched onto the recent failures of markets as the perfect argument for why we need to curb international economic integration.
Although many economists strongly argued for the impending dominance of emerging economies, I think the ongoing global financial crisis has really shown us that these developing countries have not decoupled from the developed ones. We haven't seen an unwinding of the US current account deficit, for instance, and in fact, in the last month, there has been a flight to safety to the dollar.
Thus, one detail to keep in mind is that while the relative growth of these emerging economies is quite impressive, their absolute economic power still does not yet rival that of the US, Japan, EU, etc for dominance. Furthermore, the spread of the global financial crisis to emerging economies (salient examples include Russia and China) signal that these markets have not achieved a degree of magnitude large enough to have decoupled from developed markets.
So what's really at stake here? It's pretty much accepted science that globalization, taken as a whole, has helped mankind to an unimaginable extent. That's not really being debated now. But that doesn't mean there aren't losers.
For me, one salient question is whether globalization helps or hurts the poor. But what makes this debate so difficult is that both sides tend to pick and choose their evidence. For instance, depending on whether the poverty line is set at $1/day or $2/day, income inequality can be made to appear like it is shrinking (using the former) or expanding (using the latter). The same goes for calculating income distribution using household surveys (increasing income gap) versus national accounts (decreasing income gap).
Thus, there is this ever-shifting line in the sand for determining when globalization helps and when it hurts. So I think this debate really becomes a framing problem. That is, are we talking about a Rawlsian "veil of ignorance", a bottoms-up view where gains for the majority must not come from losses to the minority, or a Millsian utilitarian approach to social welfare, a top-down view where the greatest good to the greatest number of people is what counts.
What we find from behavioral economists is that the Rawlsian paradigm (anti-globalization in this context) may be hard to fight, as "people are reluctant to harm some people in order to help others, even when the harm is less than the forgone help. Although there were certainly authors who championed the all-powerful forces of free markets to do good, I tend to side with the critics who say we need to move beyond utter reliance on markets.
"Most academic agree that markets, by themselves, do not lead to efficiency; the question is whether government can improve matters," said Economics Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz. When it comes to alleviating poverty and income inequality, I believe the government must be a force greater than the invisible hand.
Now, with any discussion on globalization, we can't help but talk about China. As I read the gushing hyperboles on China, one big question I keep asking myself is "Can anyone compete with China?" They have an enviously high savings rate, a huge foreign reserves warchest, and the world's largest population. Obviously, they do not hold a comparative advantage in everything (especially in industries requiring heavy skilled labor), but, some economic models indicate China's growth will lead to some global losers, such as Singapore, the Phillipines, much of South Asia, and Europe.
We also know from recent research that Africa hasn't been able to compete with China. Yet the only recipe for growth for many of these lower-end third-world countries, such as India, is an export model based on labor-intensive manufacturing. Ironically, China's wild success with this model may remove it as a long-term competitor, as we've already seen wage rates on the coast skyrocket. Thus, there just may be hope yet for other countries looking for a piece of the pie.
A related question is if China's rise detract investment elsewhere? Would Vietnam be more seeing higher growth if it wasn't so close to such a global star? Upon closer introspection, I would argue this is not the case if global savings is liquid and we do not presume there is only X dollars to go around. Now that China is moving into more skilled industries, textiles may move to Vietnam, and thus, investors may move capital (that they may not have invested at all otherwise) there to seek higher returns. One caveat that many of the author failed to explore, furthermore, is that China's growth means a burgeoning middle class (45% of its population by 2020 some estimate) that will stimulate global demand and consumption.
Another topic definitely worth addressing is the rise of multinationals from emerging markets. An Economist "special report" on globalization from this Sept said that 62 of the global Fortune 500 are from emerging markets this year, up from 31 in 2003, and expected to "rise rapidly." Here's why this trend is significant: we are no longer seeing globalization as a one-way street from the developed to the developing world. Rather, these emerging markets are actually investing and expanding into the US and Europe. Take Lenovo, which bought out IBM and discarded the IBM logo last year, confident that its Chinese-brewed brand was good enough to go global.
One surprising study from a couple months ago is turning the idea that China's growth harms American workers (by depressing wages or even shuttering jobs) on its head. A must read!
I would say globalization, either through trade or capital flows, cannot pull a country out of poverty. Two-thirds of India's children drop out of school before 8th grade. And thus, social improvements (such as education and healthcare) and physical infrastructure improvements (roads, telecom, energy grid, etc) need to be prioritized by the government, and this in turn enables globalization to power the engines.
I think an interesting lens to examining globalization's impact on emerging markets is to look at the differences behind China and India, where China's recent growth has been doubled that of India. Before doing the readings, I had thought it was mainly due to the greater trade liberalization of China. But China has fundamentally better infrastructure, not just socially and physically, but also in regulatory and financial aspects. Other reasons for why China has achieved greater success include the lack of protectionism for small-scale industries, looser labor laws, and the most intellectually-surprising possibility, a more homogeneous society (Sweden and Japan are similar models).
Filed under: China
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Joe Nov 21st 2008 5:43AM
I didn't read the report but I think your review is interesting. After going to school with a few of them I can say there are a lot of smart people in the chinese government (as opposed to the US where the private sector poaches the best and brightest). I do hope they invest in their own country, because the massive amount of layoffs going off in China make our problems seem lilliputian. They have intentionally relied on exports to drive growth while depressing wages to maintain their lead in exports. This has created the problem where the majority of the population can't afford to buy the very things they produce.
Eventually, the government is going to have to let the RMB float so it can truly compete in the global market.
As for India, I've never understood how a country with such massive potential can continuously fail at such a basic thing as infrastructure improvement. Even in a place as Hyderabad, businesses have had to create their own energy production because they can't rely on the local power company to supply something as fundamental as electricity.
Thanh T. Nov 23rd 2008 8:09AM
“Does globalization help or hurt the poor?” Good question and an interesting topic for a case study analysis.
If you remember a few years back, In December 26, 2004 a major earthquake measuring 9.0 (magnitude) struck the western end of Indonesia's Sumatra Island which flatten many buildings and sent a wall of water higher than tree-tops into many towns and villages around the region.
This 9.0 (magnitude) earthquake produced a series of tsunamis that devastated coastal towns, fishing villages, tourist resorts, and communities from Sri Lanka to India to Thailand to Malaysia and killing more than 130,406, displaced 504,518, and left 36,836 people missing in at least nine countries.
Many global organizations from abroad came together to aid in the recovery and reconstruction projects in this earthquake-tsunami effected region.
I believe a country’s economic growth-stability may depend on the overall desirability of its goods and services and how well total quality is managed.
In today’s competitive business environments, some organizations thrive in an international free trade structure.
However, different countries may implement laws and economic policies that prohibit certain growth in some areas.
I think most business managers would agree creative ideas, new technological advancements, speed, product quality, and cost competitiveness will continue to influences-stimulate future markets.
Organizations like KFC and McDonalds have done extremely well in overseas markets because their restaurant menus are customizes to a particular geographic region.
Another organization that has done extremely well is MTV, which is viewed in more than 164 countries and produces programs in many different languages.
Remaining competitive in today’s global business environments is not an easy task. Frequently changes in market prices have considerable affect on consumer demands and people’s lives.
Products and services must be desirable to a particular region, well marketed, and ethically managed by building trust within the community.
The Science of Economics is to evaluate the different methods of production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services.
According to one of the most influential economists of our time, John Maynard Keyes (1883-1946), his theories suggests, “the ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men (or women) who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.”
Hmmm...Interesting words by John Maynard Keyes.
Within the past few years (2005-2006), the U.S. has been the main economic engine behind world growth. China and many countries in Asia also have strong emerging economies.
Japan, Europe, and countries in Latin America have seen growing economies as well because of low interest rates and increase domestic spending.
However, in recent months the recent global financial crisis has caused unemployment rates to rise in some countries which caused many to review their own fiscal policies.
What will the future hold?
Marsha Mar 5th 2009 4:02PM
"International economic integration" is simply bad systems engineering and clearly about aggressive agenda pushing. It reminds me of Titanic without compartments hardware and tangled-up spaghetti code software and faith-based nuclear reactor operations where the invisible hand of thermodynamics will correct all that goes wrong! Economists have left one little thing out of the equation - Murphy's Law!